| 364 | 0 | 11 |
| Downloads | Citas | Reads |
[Objective] Global climate change and human activities have profoundly altered drought dynamics, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions. This study analyzes the propagation characteristics and mechanisms of meteorological drought(MD) and hydrological drought(HD) on both sides of the southern Gaoligong Mountains within the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region( LRGR), aiming to provide scientific foundation for effective water resource management and disaster prevention.[Methods]Based on the significant hydrometeorological differentiation between both sides of the southern Gaoligong Mountains,and using monthly precipitation and runoff data between 1981 and 2020 from representative river basins, the intensity and frequency of MD and HD were evaluated using the standardized precipitation index(SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI).Variation trends of drought indices were analyzed through Mann-Kendall trend tests. Run theory was employed to evaluate the propagation time lag from MD to HD, followed by a Bayesian ordinal probit regression model to quantify the relationship between cumulative precipitation deficits(SPIm) and HD severity. [Results] The result showed that over the past four decades, MD intensity in the LRGR had increased significantly. The frequency of MD events( approximately 2. 2 to 2. 5 events/year) was notably higher than that of HD events(approximately 1. 1 to 1. 5 events/year). HD events demonstrated longer duration(2. 18 to 3. 04 months) and greater severity(1. 18 to 1. 76). The propagation from MD to HD was relatively rapid, with an average time lag of 0. 5 to 0. 7 months, while the recovery process showed longer lags(1. 2 to 2. 2 months). The Bayesian analysis revealed a negative correlation between SPIm and HD severity, with increased uncertainty in this relationship under extreme MD conditions.[Conclusion]High-intensity HD may constrain agricultural and socio-economic activities in the region. The rapid response to MD and the prolonged HD recovery highlight emerging challenges for sustainable water resource utilization in this area. These findings enhance the understanding of drought propagation processes in mountainous ecosystems and provide scientific support for adapting water resource management strategies to climate change.
[1] ZHOU S, ZHANG Y, PARK WILLIAMS A, et al. Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events[J]. Science Advances, 2019,5:eaau5740.
[2] VICENTE-SERRANO S M, BEGUERÍA S, LÓPEZ-MORENO J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23(7):1696-1718.
[3] BARKER L J, HANNAFORD J, CHIVERTON A, et al. From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016, 20(6):2483-2505.
[4] HO S, TIAN L, DISSE M, et al. A new approach to quantify propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 603:127056.
[5]马睿,李云玲,邢西刚,等.水资源刚性约束指标体系构建及应用[J].人民黄河, 2023, 45(4):76-80.MA R, LI Y L., XING X G, et al. Building and application of indicator system of water resources rigid constraint[J]. Yellow River, 2023, 45(4):76-80.
[6]孙志英,郑悠,杨戈.中国水资源国家所有权实践路径优化研究:明晰水资源管理权与所有权的边界[J].绿色科技, 2021,23(2):223-226.SUN Z Y, ZHENG Y, YANG G. Research on the optimization of the practice path of China’ s water resources state ownership:Clarifying the boundary between water resources management authority and ownership[J]. Green Technology, 2021, 23(2):223-226.
[7] ELTAHIR E A B, YEH P J F. On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois[J]. Water Resources Research, 1999, 35(4):1199-1217.
[8] XU Y, ZHANG X, HAO Z C, et al. Characterization of agricultural drought propagation over China based on bivariate probabilistic quantification[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 598:126194.
[9] SVOBODA M, LECOMTE D, HAYES M, et al. The drought monitor[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2002, 83(8):1181-1190.
[10] VAN LOON A F. Hydrological drought explained[J]. WIREs Water,2015, 2(4):359-392.
[11]杨柳燕,杨欣妍,任丽曼,等.太湖蓝藻水华暴发机制与控制对策[J].湖泊科学, 2019, 31(1):18-27.YANG L Y, YANG X Y, REN L M, et al. Mechanisms and control strategies of cyanobacterial blooms(blue-green algae)in Lake Taihu[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2019, 31(1):18-27.
[12] GUO Y, HUANG S Z, HUANG Q, et al. Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 712:136502.
[13] GU L, CHEN J, YIN J B, et al. Drought hazard transferability from meteorological to hydrological propagation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2020, 585:124761.
[14] XU Y, ZHANG X, WANG X, et al. Propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought under the impact of human activities:A case study in northern China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019,579:124147.
[15] WU J F, CHEN X H, YAO H X, et al. Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 765:144232.
[16] BEVACQUA A G, CHAFFE P L B, CHAGAS V B P, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in Brazil[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 603:126902.
[17] LUO X, LUO X, JI X, et al. Meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin:Spatiotemporal patterns and propagation[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2023, 293:106913.
[18] ZHANG Q, LI Y P, HUANG G H, et al. Bayesian analysis of variance for quantifying multi-factor effects on drought propagation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 632:130911.
[19] HASLINGER K, KOFFLER D, SCHÖNER W, et al. Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow:Effects of climate-catchment interaction[J]. Water Resources Research, 2014,50(3):2468-2487.
[20] PEÑA-GALLARDO M, VICENTE-SERRANO S M, HANNAFORD J, et al. Complex influences of meteorological drought time-scales on hydrological droughts in natural basins of the contiguous Unites States[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 568:611-625.
[21] LI J Z, GUO Y G, WANG Y X, et al. Drought propagation patterns under naturalized condition using daily hydrometeorological data[J].Advances in Meteorology, 2018, 2018(1):2469156.
[22] YU M X, LIU X L, LI Q F. Responses of meteorological droughthydrological drought propagation to watershed scales in the upper Huaihe River basin, China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020, 27(15):17561-17570.
[23] SATTAR M N, LEE J Y, SHIN J Y, et al. Probabilistic characteristics of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in South Korea[J]. Water Resources Management, 2019, 33(7):2439-2452.
[24] DEHGHANNIK M, KAVIANPOUR M R, MOAZAMI S. Spatial analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics using Copula model[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2021, 80(24):802.
[25] LIU Q, YANG Y T, LIANG L Q, et al. Thresholds for triggering the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in waterlimited regions of China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2023, 876:162771.
[26] AHMAD I, AHMAD T, REHMAN S U, et al. A detailed study on quantification and modeling of drought characteristics using different copula families[J]. Heliyon, 2024, 10(3):e25422.
[27] XU Z G, WU Z Y, SHAO Q X, et al. From meteorological to agricultural drought:Propagation time and probabilistic linkages[J].Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies, 2023, 46:101329.
[28] ZHU Y, LIU Y, WANG W, et al. Three dimensional characterization of meteorological and hydrological droughts and their probabilistic links[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 578:124016.
[29] ZHU G F, YANG L, QIN D H, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of drought index in a typical steep alpine terrain in Hengduan Mountains[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2016, 13(7):1186-1199.
[30]何大明,吴绍洪,彭华,等.纵向岭谷区生态系统变化及西南跨境生态安全研究[J].地球科学进展, 2005, 20(3):338-344.HE D M, WU S H, PENG H, et al. A study of ecosystem changes in longitudinal range-gorge region and transboundary eco-security in Southwest China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(3):338-344.
[31] SHUKLA S, WOOD A W. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008, 35(2):2007GL032487.
[32] WU H, HAYES M J, WEISS A, et al. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, the China-Z index and the statistical Z-score[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2001, 21(6):745-758.
[33] ZHONG F L, CHENG Q P, WANG P. Meteorological drought,hydrological drought, and NDVI in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China:Evolution and propagation[J]. Advances in Meteorology,2020, 2020(1):2409068.
[34] MARDEN J I, KENDALL M, GIBBONS J D. Rank correlation methods(5th Ed.)[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(417):249.
[35] YUE S, PILON P, CAVADIAS G. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’ s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 259(1/2/3/4):254-271.
[36]葛彩莲.应用游程理论分析无定河流域气象干旱[J].水利科技与经济, 2012, 18(9):58-59.GE C L. Analysis of meteorological drought in the Wuding River Basin using run-length theory[J]. Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy, 2012, 18(9):58-59.
[37] MISHRA A K, SINGH V P, DESAI V R. Drought characterization:A probabilistic approach[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2009, 23(1):41-55.
[38] MISHRA A K, SINGH V P. A review of drought concepts[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391(1/2):202-216.
[39] YILDIRIM G, RAHMAN A, SINGH V P. Meteorological and hydrological drought hazard, frequency and propagation analysis:A case study in southeast Australia[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies, 2022, 44:101229.
[40] DAS S, DAS J, UMAMAHESH N V. Investigating the propagation of droughts under the influence of large-scale climate indices in India[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2022, 610:127900.
[41] DING Y B, XU J, WANG X W, et al. Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China[J].Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 283:111980.
[42] KRUSCHKE J K. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis:A Tutorial with R,JAGS, and Stan[M]. 2nd ed. London:Academic Press, 2015.
[43] MARAK J D K, SARMA A K, BHATTACHARJYA R K. Innovative trend analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall variations in Umiam and Umtru watersheds in Meghalaya, India[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2020, 142(3):1397-1412.
[44] SWAIN S, MISHRA S K, PANDEY A, et al. Spatiotemporal assessment of precipitation variability, seasonality, and extreme characteristics over a Himalayan catchment[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022, 147(1):817-833.
[45] THIELEN D, SCHUCHMANN K L, RAMONI-PERAZZI P, et al.Quo vadis Pantanal? Expected precipitation extremes and drought dynamics from changing sea surface temperature[J]. PLoS One,2020, 15(1):e0227437.
[46] LI C, ZWIERS F, ZHANG X B, et al. Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models[J]. Journal of Climate, 2021, 34(9):3441-3460.
[47]陈文华,徐娟,李双成.怒江流域下游地区气象与水文干旱特征研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 55(4):764-772.CHEN W H, XU J, LI S C. A study on the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts in the lower nu river[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2019, 55(4):764-772.
[48] ZARGAR A, SADIQ R, NASER B, et al. A review of drought indices[J]. Environmental Reviews, 2011, 19:333-349.
Basic Information:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.01.004
China Classification Code:P426.616;P333
Citation Information:
[1]CHEN Wenhua,LI Wenjin,ZHANG Ning ,et al.Variation and propagation characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2026,57(01):45-54.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.01.004.
Fund Information:
怒江下游山地农业生态系统云南省野外科学观测研究站项目(202305AM340031); 国家自然科学基金项目(32160078); 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF13024)