About the Journal
Journal Title: Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Publication Cycle: Monthly(Published on the 20th of each month)
Governing Body: Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China
Sponsor: Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources
Tel: 010-63205981
E-mail： 13941816@qq.com
China Standard Serial Number (CN): 10-1746/TV
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN): 1000-0860
News
WRF simulation of typhoon precipitation: A case study of Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province, China
WU Jingwen;YAN Youyi;YIN Fangxu;YOU Jiewen;ZHUANG Yao;GUAN Xiaojun;JIANG Lizhi;GAO Lu;[Objective]Precipitation events caused by Super Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province were simulated and evaluated based on the WRF model to provide a reference for typhoon precipitation simulation and forecasting in southeast coastal areas of China. [Methods]The next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction model WRF V4. 3(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) was used to simulate the precipitation caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province in 2023. Observations from 86 meteorological stations with hourly rainfall records were used to evaluate the model's performance. Six evaluation indices were used, including the correlation coefficient(R), root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute error(MAE), equitable threat score(ETS), probability of detection(POD), and false alarm ratio(FAR). [Results](1) The temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation during Typhoon Doksuri was effectively captured by the WRF model. Precipitation intensity increased gradually from July 27 to 29, 2023, with the heaviest rainfall concentrated in the northern and eastern coastal areas of Fujian Province.(2) Significant differences in model performance were observed in terms of R, RMSE, and MAE. The largest errors occurred in Putian City, while smaller errors were found in southwestern Fujian Province. The evaluation result of all six indices showed that the WRF model performed best in simulating daily precipitation compared to hourly, three-hourly, six-hourly, and twelve-hourly precipitation.(3) The R95p index indicated that the WRF model successfully captured the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation. However, extreme precipitation intensity was overestimated in certain coastal areas.(4) Despite accurately identifying the coastal regions of Fujian as being most affected, the WRF model failed to accurately simulate the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation. The simulated precipitation centers showed discrepancies when compared with the observed centers. [Conclusion]Although the WRF model underestimated hourly precipitation, it successfully captured the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province. It reproduced the heavy rainfall centers in central Fujian Province, with daily precipitation peaks reaching up to 350 mm. This highlighted the severity of extreme rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri.
Response of flood and drought disasters to climate change in Poyang Lake Basin
FU Jing;HU Zhenpeng;LI Guowen;Jiangxi Water Resources Institute;Key Laboratory of Hydrological Monitoring and Water Ecological Protection of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education;[Objective]Climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. The impact of climate warming on the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts is empirically studied in the Poyang Lake Basin.[Methods]A flood and drought disaster intensity model is constructed, including the main disaster causing factors such as precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin and the flow of the Yangtze River. This model is used to calculate the intensity of summer floods, spring and summer droughts in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1960 to 2022. By comparing the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts before and after climate change, the response of floods and droughts to climate change is obtained.[Results]After 1996, the climate has warmed in the Poyang Lake Basin, with precipitation and surface runoff decreasing by 1.9%～5.1% during the wet season and increasing by 1.1%～9.1% during the dry season. Climate warming will have a very limited impact on the frequency and intensity of summer floods and spring droughts, but will significantly increased the frequency and intensity of summer droughts, from 16% before warming to 28% after warming.[Conclusion]The solution result of the intensity model for flood and drought disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin are in line with the actual situation, and the time and intensity of flood and drought disasters are basically consistent with the recorded actual disaster situation. The model may have scientific value and the result are reliable. If statistical method well be used to determine the intensity classification of flood and drought disasters, it will promote the application and promotion of the model.
Study on runoff abundance and depletion encounters in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers under climate change
ZHANG Jiayue;ZHOU Yuyan;LU Fan;FENG Jie;LIU Jianwei;XUE Wei;YAN Yuliang;ZHANG Chuchu;[Objective]The upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, located in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, serve as major water production and conservation areas. The study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on the probability of runoff abundance and depletion encounters in the water source and receiving regions of inter-basin water diversion projects in this area, thereby providing theoretical support for improving project planning, design, and operational efficiency.[Methods]A bivariate Copula function was employed to construct a runoff abundance and depletion encounter probability model, analyzing the characteristics of these probabilities in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers over the past 40 years. Distributed hydrological models and climate scenarios were used to predict changes in runoff abundance and depletion encounter probabilities by the mid-21st century and the end of the 21st century, as well as the response characteristics of diversion-favorable probabilities to climate change.[Results]During the historical period(1978—2020) in the study area, an overall increasing trend in annual runoff was observed. Significant fluctuations in runoff were recorded during the summer and autumn seasons(-3.29～11.78 m3·s-1/a), reflecting distinct seasonal characteristics. The highest rate of increase in summer-autumn runoff was found in the Jinsha River Basin, which was generally higher than the runoff change trend in the Yellow River source region(-2.3～0.73 m3·s-1/a), aligning with the requirements for water diversion. On an annual and flood season scale, the synchronous frequency of runoff abundance and depletion was generally higher than the asynchronous frequency, while on a non-flood season scale, it was lower. The probability of diversion-favorable conditions ranged from 68% to 75%, ensuring water supply feasibility. Future projections indicate that annual and flood season diversion-favorable probabilities will generally exceed historical values(3.53%～5.44%), whereas probabilities during the non-flood season under SSP245 and early SSP585 scenarios will fall below historical levels(-1.57%～0.91%).[Conclusion]Transitioning from SSP245 to SSP585 scenarios, the probability of asynchronous runoff abundance and depletion encounters is projected to increase, indicating that extreme climate conditions may lead to greater spatial differences in water resource distribution and more pronounced temporal-spatial variations. The average probability of diversion-favorable conditions is estimated to range from 71.2% to 73.2%, suggesting a high likelihood of compensatory water regulation. This finding is highly favorable for the implementation of the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, enabling compensatory water diversion during both flood and non-flood periods at different time stages.
Analysis of the water vapor transport process and characteristics of the rainstorm in Hefei in July 2021
CHEN Jingyuan;LIU Xiaodong;GUO Yuan;HUO Yunchao;ZHANG Shuyu;WANG Xueni;GAO Xuerui;[Objective]In the context of global climate change, climate variability has increased sharply, and extreme events have become more frequent, posing significant threats to people's lives, property, and the healthy development of the socio-economic system. During the 2021 Meiyu season in Anhui Province, the average rainfall was 317 mm, which was nearly 30% higher than the long-term average. To analyze the moisture transport field of heavy rainfall and reveal its development characteristics, [Methods]the Lagrangian Hybrid Single Particle Trajectory Model(HYSPLIT) was utilized to simulate the moisture transport trajectories during the rainfall event in the Dongpu and Dafangying reservoir basins of Hefei City in July 2021.[Results]The result indicate that the spatial distribution of rainfall was uneven, with an average rainfall of 306.6 mm. The highest rainfall was recorded at Liumiao Station(356.5 mm), while the lowest was at Shenyoufang Station(228.5 mm). The characteristics of moisture transport trajectories varied at different height levels. At 925 hPa, there were southeast paths from the Western Pacific, southwest paths from the Bay of Bengal, and southward paths from the South China Sea, with corresponding moisture contribution rates of 44.4%, 43.8%, and 11.8%, respectively. At 850 hPa, the paths from the Western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal accounted for 26.3% and 73.7%, respectively. At 700 hPa, the paths included the Western Pacific, southwest paths from the Indian Ocean, and westward paths from the Tibetan Plateau, with contributions of 17.1%, 77.9%, and 5.0%, respectively. As the initial height of the moisture trajectory simulation increased, the spatial distribution of the number of trajectories showed a pattern of more in the west and less in the east, and both temperature and specific humidity increased(decreased) during the transport process.[Conclusion]The moisture for the rainfall event in the Dongpu and Dafangying reservoir basins of Hefei City in July 2021 primarily originated from oceanic channels at different height levels, with significant contributions from the Western Pacific, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian Ocean. At the 850 hPa level, a very strong moisture convergence zone was observed, providing ample moisture for localized heavy rainfall.
Characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and Climate influencing factors in Minjiang River Basin
CUI Hongming;LIU Meibing;GAN Beibei;CHEN Xingwei;CHEN Ying;GAO Lu;DENG Haijun;[Objective]Global warming has accelerated the hydrological cycle in the regions, leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. Minjiang River Basin is an important basin in the southeast coast of China, so it is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme precipitation for the prevention and control of flood disasters in the Minjiang River Basin.[Methods]Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin, 9 extreme precipitation indices were selected. Applying the method of Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Sens' s slope estimation and Morlet wavelet analysis, the spatiotemporal evolution and periodic characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin were analyzed, and the influence of atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation was further discussed.[Results]The result showed that during the period from 1962 to 2021, the total annual precipitation(PRCPTOT), maximum 1-day precipitation(Rx1day), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5day), extreme heavy precipitation(R99p), and the number of days with rainfall above heavy rain(R25mm) exhibited an insignificant upward trend. The upward trends of extreme precipitation(R95p), daily precipitation intensity(SDII), and the number of days above storm(R50mm) reached a significant level(P<0.05), with the growth rates reaching 20.48 mm/10 a, 0.22 mm·d-1/10 a, and 0.28/10 a, respectively. The number of consecutive rainy days(CWD) showed an insignificant downward trend(-0.14 d/10 a). Indicators such as PRCPTOT, R25mm, and R50mm presented an increasing trend from the southeast coastal areas to the northwest mountainous areas. The low value areas of Rx1day, Rx5day, R95p, and R99p were mainly located in the central part of the basin, while the high value areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast coastal areas. The high value areas of CWD were mainly distributed in the southwest of the basin. The SDII of all stations showed an upward trend, and 4 stations had a significant increase, mainly located in the northwest and southeast coastal areas of the basin. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited the periodic characteristics of two different time scales. The impacts of atmospheric circulation factors of EASMI, GMLOT, and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation in the current year all reached a significant level(P<0.01).[Conclusion]The result indicated that in the past 60 years, the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin have exhibited an increasing trend, while the persistence of rainfall has decreased, and extreme precipitation has evolved from long-duration and low-intensity to short-duration and high-intensity. The high value areas of extreme precipitation are mainly located in the Wuyi Mountains in the northwest, the Jiuxian Mountain in the southern Daiyun Mountains, and the Changle city along the eastern coast. The extreme precipitation index has periodicities of two time scales, namely 6～8 years and 45～56 years. After 2000, the extreme precipitation in the basin oscillated more frequently at short period scales. The impacts of NAO, GMLOT, and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation have a lag effect. The increase in global temperature is an important factor contributing to the increase of extreme precipitation and the decrease of continuous precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin.
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